We can win, but we need your vote

I have been surprised to see some Parties stating that they could be the tactical vote here in the new Exmouth and Exeter East constituency. I have seen some “creative” statistics circulated widely and some generalised assumptions to try and justify these opinions. So I felt it important as the Chair of the Exmouth and Exeter East Labour Party that I should clarify the position based on actual data and online resources available to everyone.

Firstly, let’s look at independent expert analysis. Nearly all polling websites are currently predicting that the Tories will win here, unless we all come together and vote to stop it. The vast majority of polling websites predict Labour will be a close second or, in some cases, are predicting we may win. The first tactical poll to publish Get Voting has recommended voting Labour to ensure the Tories (and Reform) don’t get elected here.

We are the Tactical vote, only Labour can beat the Tories here.

Every Labour vote here will help elect a Labour MP, working at the heart of Westminster to help make the change this country and this constituency needs.

On the ground reality on doorsteps

We are the party with the widest reach across the whole of the constituency. Large teams of canvassers are out and about during the week and all day on Saturdays and Sundays. We have spoken to many thousands of voters across the constituency. No other party comes close to that level of face to face contact.

Our on-the-ground “live feedback” shows that beyond the Tories there are two key types of voters which are by far the largest. Labour support is extremely strong and there is also a high number of voters keen to keep the Tories out many voted tactically for the independent in 2019 with some who are new to the area are aware they need to vote tactically. Most of those we have spoken to see Labour as the Party to do that and will be lending us their vote.

Contrary to the spin we have seen, we are encountering limited support for the Liberal Democrats, it is certainly no where near the support for Labour. Indeed, Reform seems to come up almost as often.  References to other parties and to the independents standing are extremely rare.

Quite often we hear that the misleading campaign by the Liberal Democrats is a real concern and the fear is that, although they are not seen as potential winners, they will split the vote and enable the Tories to win.

This is based on the findings of thousands  and thousands of actual face to face contacts. Away from stats and polls it’s the reality on the doorsteps.

With your support we can win. We can keep the Tories out.

The picture above lists 8 of the most significant polls predicting the result of the election in Exmouth and Exeter East. Seven our of eight show Labour as the Party that is best placed to beat the Tories and Reform. some predict that Labour will be so close to the Tories that its hard to predict.

One poll favours the Liberal Democrats, this is Electoral Calculus, at the start of the election it significantly favoured Labour. We have learnt from a source within the Liberal Democrats that they have been speaking directly to electoral calculus. Seemingly as a result of these discussions the poll changed and is the only poll that now favours them. It is significantly out of sync with all other major polls. Any websites that averages all polls that include Electoral Calculus will be impacted.

Our position is that Polls should be objective and provide as fair and as balanced a view as possible free from political interference.

But with the exception of that one poll, Labour is clearly the preference of the polls. There are websites that explore the issues around tactical voting, looking at polls and a range of other issues important to the local areas. Two out of three of the main Tactical Voting websites have recommended that Labour is the Tactical Vote here in our constituency. One has said it’s too close to call (but originally had Labour as the tactical vote). We do not know the basis for the change.

An observation often made is that local election results aren’t a perfect indicator how we will vote on 4^th July. There is a lot of truth in this, but they do give an indication of party support at the time of that election. Of course, the more time that has passed since a local election the less we can rely on them, the last all out election for East Devon District Council was over a year ago. The votes above were cast last month so pretty much as fresh as you can get.

But it is important to remember that the number of voters who come out to vote at a General Election is usually quite a bit higher than those that vote in local elections. It is also worth remembering that in a general election people often give more weight to national rather than local issues. Therefore, national trends, such as the significant rise in Labour support across the country will undoubtedly impact here.

We have seen the Liberal Democrats “creative” local Party analysis of the East Devon District Council 2023 local elections. The local Party uses a methodology which, in my opinion, fails to deliver a meaningfull prediction. What it does create is a massively disproportionate and highly misleading indicator of voting ratios in the constituency

The data is predominantly from over a year ago and is intended to try and indicate the voting share of the Parties during that election. They say that their calculations show that they got 39% of the vote and Labour got just 13%. Yet, two key factors seem to have been overlooked in their preparation of this prediction. Firstly, in the East Devon District all out election there were multiple seats in each Ward, voters had multiple votes to cast. The Liberal Democrat’s calculation added all the multiple votes cast by individuals in each ward together.

This means that, using this approach, the Liberal Democrats can claim more votes than there were voters.

For example, in the Broadclyst Ward 1,679 voters took part but, the Liberal Democrats claim 2,061 votes (they have added all 3 candidates votes together). This is significantly more than the number of voters. Clearly not something that can be used in a meaningful prediction of General Election results where one person gets one vote.

Secondly, in 8 of the 16 wards in the Constituency there was no Labour Candidate standing, so people were unable to vote Labour and accurately reflect support. Based on our extensive doorstep contact right across the constituency we know that this is a significant number of voters keen to vote Labour who would not have been counted. Obviously, in the General Election everyone will be able to vote Labour so half the Wards used to calculate the Liberal Democrats numbers are meaningless as a prediction of the General Election votes.

Even if the calculation had been put together proportionately it would still be from a local election held over a year ago.

At the Exmouth Hustings the Compere David Paisley (Political journalist) said “People tend not to vote the same in general elections as the do in local elections”

Results of the 2024 Police and Crime Commissioners Election

The Police and Crime Commissioner’s election was also in May 2024. Although their results are not easily available Ward by Ward the results for the two District Council areas within the new constituency are available. The results were:

In Exeter City

• Labour 15,742
• Conservatives 9,785
• Liberal Democrat 5,888

East Devon District Council

• Conservatives 12,530
• Labour 6,591
• Liberal Democrat 6,286

The total votes were

• Conservatives 28,272
• Labour 22,333
• Liberal Democrats 16,071

Although the geography of these returns goes wider than that of the new constituency this is the most recent election that goes wider than Ward by Ward results. Again, it is still not a perfect predictor of a General Election result, as voter numbers, demographics and issues affecting votes will be markedly different, but it is another indicator of the level of change and increase in support for Labour in the new Constituency

The changing Geography of the new Constituency 

A study has been carried out by Professors  Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher which looked at how the votes cast in the 2019 general election are redistributed into the new boundaries. After adding in the new areas and removing those lost in the boundary changes, Labour has increased to 10.5% the Liberal Democrats have remained around 3%. This represents a significant difference in terms of starting positions for the two parties, but its worth remembering that the political landscape in 2019 is significantly different to 2024.

The commitment, energy and professionalism of our candidate

Lastly but most importantly Helen Dallimore’s capacity and skills clearly set her head and shoulders above the other candidates. Helen’s professional background is as an employment lawyer and now as workplace consultant training and advising leaders and businesses on workers’ rights and creating positive workplace cultures. Helen understands the importance of fair, transparent and accountable leadership and wants to use her professional skills to tackle the toxicity of politics.

She has the capacity and professional skills and experience to quickly develop into a highly competent Member of Parliament at the heart of Westminster. She has the commitment, energy and lived experience to fight for what’s right for our area and she will be a powerful advocate, fighting to help and support individual constituents in need.

Whether it’s on the doorstep taking to residents, answering questions at political hustings on the radio or television she is clearly confident and capable, informed and caring. Regardless of the Party she represents she is by far the best candidate.

You can watch Helen answering questions at the Exmouth Hustings on YouTube on this link (21/6/24) and on the BBC Politics South West programme on the BBC IPlayer following this link (23/6/24).

Conclusion

With results of the 2019 election matched to the new constituency Labour has three times as many votes as the Liberal Democrats as a start. General elections draw out significantly more voters than local elections and many voters are looking at national rather than local issues. So older local election results are an indicator but not very significant. The national political landscape and demographics in our constituency are very different to 2019.  The large anti Tory vote invested in the independent will be distributed towards the Party most likely to keep the Tories (and probably Reform) out. Significant on the ground canvassing, polling and tactical websites say that is Labour.

The choices are clear, tactical voters can choose to lend their vote to Helen Dallimore and elect a Labour MP to a Labour Government and have a powerful voice in the heart of Westminster.

Or they can lend their vote to the Liberal Democrats in their campaign to move up to second place in the July election. Statistically its harder but it might possibly help to elect an MP who will sit on the opposition benches but it can also mean that the is vote split and either the Tories or Reform charge through the middle to win.

The choice is yours to make.

For clarity and transparency, I am the Chair of the Labour Party in the Exmouth and Exeter East Constituency, so clearly biased. However, to the best of my knowledge the information above is factual and can be supported by evidence, the majority of this data is available from election returns by the respective authorities polling and tactical voting websites.

Chair of the Exmouth and Exeter East Labour Party